A Retrograde Review for 2022

Reflecting on a year of world astrology predictions

There’s a common accusation levelled at astrologers who make public predictions: that we trumpet those we get right, but brush our failures under the carpet. Alas, this accusation is not always unjust. I may even have been guilty of this at times myself. In my defence, I’d suggest this kind of behaviour is common to all professionals. We focus on our successes, not our failures—because of course we do. Does a lawyer boast of the cases she’s lost? Does a chef crow about his sunken soufflés?

What’s usually lying behind this accusation when it’s levelled at astrologers, though, is the implication that we are scam artists. This, I’d insist, is mostly nonsense. The colleagues I’ve met in astrology without exception believe genuinely in the power and beauty of their art. To be sure, there are people I’d describe as scam artists floating around, particularly on social media, but they are greatly in the minority.

That said, I think it’s true that many of us really could do better in terms of transparency and self-assessment about our astrological work. I know I could, anyway. So, in the first days of this new year, with both Mars and its ruler Mercury retrograde, I decided it was a good time for some critical reflection. In this article, I’m going to review every one of the public predictions I made about 2022 on the platforms I’ve published on, which means Substack, Twitter and YouTube.

For each “prediction” below, I’ll explain my rationale for making it, describe what ended up happening, assess my performance and explain what I’ve learned. I’m going to group these predictions according to the astrological phenomena I based them on.

Given the way I practice astrology, you might even wonder if many of the statements below can be considered “predictions” at all. Making strong claims about what “will” happen is good for engagement, but it’s not how I roll. I don’t believe the future is knowable with certainty—not by me, anyway. Instead, I make educated conjectures and sketch possibilities that I believe fit astrological symbolism. I’m an interpreter, not a prophet.

I’d also point out that each prediction should really be read in the context it was made. I’ve excerpted parts of my writing for readers’ convenience here, but to evaluate my astrology I’d ask you consume the articles and videos in full.

There are a few reasons I’m doing this. Firstly, self-assessment is how you improve. There’s no use making predictions if you’re not going to evaluate how you did, see what went right or wrong, and adjust for the future.

Secondly, I think integrity in astrology—and in life, of course—is extremely important, and I want to have a ready defence against claims that I’m dishonest about my success rate.

And thirdly, I hope it may be of interest to those of you who want to make world astrology predictions of your own, because I’ll be explaining my thinking behind all the predictions I made.

Of course, I’d be lying if I said a part of me didn’t want to celebrate some of my successes, too. But I’ll also be hanging my dirty laundry out to dry, so hopefully this won’t feel too masturbatory.

Without further ado, here goes:

The Jupiter-Neptune conjunction of April 12

In the first weeks of 2022 I wrote a series of articles on the then-upcoming Jupiter-Neptune conjunction in Pisces of April 12:

In Dreaming big: Jupiter and Neptune meet in Pisces, published on January 5, 2022, I presented some research on the history of Jupiter-Neptune conjunctions, which show a striking correlation with peacemaking and the signing of international treaties. In two subsequent articles I made several predictions on the basis of this research, which I’ll deal with one-by-one below.

On the Covid-19 pandemic

The Prediction: In the article Is the end of our Covid nightmare in sight, published on January 21, 2022, almost three months before the conjunction, I wrote the following:

I think what we’ll see around the time of the conjunction is one or more of the following:

A declaration by the WHO or CDC that COVID-19 has become endemic—a predictable and manageable feature of the public health landscape

The announcement of a game-changing cure for COVID-19

A major international agreement on tackling COVID-19 or pandemics in general

The Rationale: In my research I noticed a repeated pattern of the signing of international treaties and the founding of international organisations at Jupiter-Neptune conjunctions (see Dreaming big: Jupiter and Neptune meet in Pisces for details). It made sense, given what had happened over the previous two years, that an international treaty on pandemic response would be on the way, and would be a priority for governments, so I guessed there would be developments to this end around the time of the conjunction.

At the same time, Jupiter-Neptune is an optimistic—if often delusional—combination of planets. It made sense that there would be feelings of optimism around the big issues of the day around the time of the conjunction, and that likely meant the pandemic. I speculated that an important new treatment for Covid could provide that sense of optimism. At the same time, I could sense a general weariness about pandemic measures and, given the vaccine rollout, it seemed clear that action against it was about to wind down, even if the virus wasn’t going anywhere.

What Happened: On February 24, 2022, the World Health Organisation launched negotiations on an international pandemic treaty. At the time, Jupiter and Neptune were both in Pisces, separated from each other by about 7 degrees, well within reasonable orb of conjunction.

Around this time many governments (in the West, at least) essentially gave up on enforcing measures to contain the pandemic. For example, on February 24, the same day as the WHO negotiations began, the UK government ended all Covid measures and free mass testing.

Assessment: Given we saw the beginning of negotiations on a pandemic treaty when Jupiter and Neptune were very close to conjunction, I count this as a partial success, although I cast a fairly wide net through the wording of my prediction. I should have been more specific—what about an agreement? Would negotiations begin? Would it be adopted? Ratified? Thrown in the sea?

There was no declaration by the CDC or the WHO on the pandemic ending, so I was wrong about that. That said, the UK government’s announcement on ending Covid measures was significant. There was no “game-changing cure” announced for Covid around that time.

I should have been more specific in the article about the orb I was using (the degrees of separation between Jupiter and Neptune within which I would consider them to be conjunct), and thus the dates within which I’d expect to see the conjunction manifest, rather than merely saying “around the time of the conjunction”, which was open to interpretation.

On the war in Yemen

The Prediction: In the article Which of the world’s wars will end this year?, published on February 2, 2022, I noted that when the Jupiter-Neptune conjunction went exact, it would be on the Descendant in Yemen and asked: “Does it signify peace talks or an end to the conflict there?”

The Rationale: My research showed repeated occurrences of Jupiter-Neptune conjunctions happening at the time of the ending of wars and the signing of peace treaties through history. To try to narrow down where the Jupiter-Neptune conjunction might manifest most clearly, I used astro mapping. This technique allows us to visualise where in the world planets at a given moment are on the angles (Ascendant, Descendant, MC, IC), and thus speaking most loudly.

Here’s the astro map I used, with the dotted line showing where the Jupiter-Neptune conjunction would go exact on the Descendant:

The map showed that the conjunction would be going exact on the Descendant in Yemen. This suggested the conjunction would be particularly important for Yemen, and I was aware there was an ongoing war there, hence my prediction.

What Happened: On April 2, 2022, two months after I published the article, the UN brokered a truce between the warring parties of the Yemen conflict. At the time, Jupiter and Neptune were just 2 degrees from each other in Pisces, very close to conjunction. The truce ended up holding for six months, until it expired on October 2, 2022.

Assessment: I count this as a significant success. Without knowing much about the Yemen conflict at all, I was able to predict a truce in the hostilities there, using astrological reasoning.

On the war in Ethiopia

The Prediction: In the same article I made the Yemen prediction, I made a prediction about the war in Ethiopia, for similar reasons. That war, between the Ethiopian government and separatists from the region of Tigray, had been ongoing since November 2020. In the article, I wrote: “It’s reasonable to think, then, that we may see substantial progress, and perhaps a peace deal in Ethiopia, around the time of the conjunction.”

The Rationale: I used the same rationale as for the Yemen prediction: in the astro map of the Jupiter-Neptune conjunction, the same line that went through Yemen also went through Ethiopia.

What Happened: On March 24, 2022, the Ethiopian government declared an immediate unilateral truce in its conflict against rebels in the Tigray region. Jupiter and Neptune were about 4 degrees from conjunction at the time. The truce held for about five months. In August 2022, the fighting resumed, but in November the two sides agreed to another “cessation of hostilities”, and the war is generally considered to be over now.

Assessment: I count this as another big success. Once again, I was able to predict a truce in a war I knew little about, despite knowing little about the conflict itself. The peace didn’t hold, but I nevertheless consider this to have been an accurate prediction.

On the war in Ukraine

The Prediction: At the time I published Which of the world’s wars will end this year? the Ukraine war was yet to begin, though it was evidently on the verge of breaking out. In the article, I wrote: “If conflict is coming, then the fact that the conjunction is setting in Ukraine and Russia, and will be almost precisely on the Descendant in the Donbas, suggests that, around the time of the conjunction, there will be peace talks or a truce of some kind—and possibly an end to the conflict.”

The Rationale: I used the same rationale as for Yemen and Ethiopia.

What Happened: There were indeed peace talks between Russia and Ukraine in late April, when Jupiter and Neptune remained very close to conjunction, although they came to nothing.

Also, on April 14, within 24 hours of the conjunction, Ukraine managed to sink the Moskva, the flagship of the Russia fleet, using two R-360 “Neptune” missiles. Here we can see all the significations of a conjunction between Jupiter (large things) and Neptune (the missiles, the sea) in Pisces (the sea, again). Astrology can be weirdly literal sometimes.

Assessment: I said there would be peace talks around the time of the conjunction, and there were. That said, it’s hard to know how often Russia and Ukraine have held talks of this kind since the conflict began. What’s more, predicting peace talks isn’t immensely useful in itself without being clear about whether they would be successful or not. So I don’t rate this as a huge success. I made a video all about this, where I go into my reasoning in more detail. Watching it now I feel I was a bit harsh on myself in this video, given that peace talks did actually take place, but you can watch it here if you want to watch some self-flagellation:

The Mars-Uranus-Rahu conjunction of August 1

On August 1, 2022 we saw an extremely rare triple conjunction of Mars, Uranus and the North Node/Rahu at 18° Taurus.

Two weeks before that conjunction I published an article on this conjunction, The earth shakes: Mars-Uranus-Rahu in Taurus and a video covering the same ground:

I thought the conjunction looked highly significant: an extremely volatile and potentially destructive configuration with historic resonance. In the article I outlined two historical precedents for similar configurations in history. The first appeared in 157 BCE, when the Roman statesman Cato the Elder visited Rome’s rival of Carthage and decided that the city had to be destroyed—which it eventually was, in the Third Punic War. The second appeared in June 1520, when the Aztec Emperor Moctezuma was deposed and died after being put under house arrest by the conquistador Hernán Cortés.

The Prediction: I sketched a few possibilities for what I thought the conjunction might signify, most of which didn’t come to pass:

The obvious prediction to make would be a serious exacerbation of the supply chain issues we’re already seeing around the world. Perhaps the ground will shake—literally… In addition, a financial calamity looks like a strong possibility. The mortgage crisis unfolding in China right now looks like a likely candidate for delivering on that…. I wonder if we may see a declaration of war against Ukraine by Vladimir Putin.

The Rationale: The symbolism of Mars, Uranus and Rahu all meeting so tightly together seemed to speak of significant sudden disruption. In the sign of Taurus, associated with resources and wealth, it seemed likely that this disruption would hit the markets and supply chains, which were trends already in evidence. The crisis in China that seemed to be emerging looked to be a likely candidate. Taurus is an earth sign, and an earthquake seemed another possibility.

Regards the war in Ukraine, I noted that the Mars-Uranus-Rahu conjunction was making aspects with several charts associated with the conflict, including those of Russia and Ukraine, as well as Putin and Zelensky.

What Happened: While supply chain issues and market disruption continued, there was no particularly notable event in those areas close to August 1. The China mortgage crisis still hasn’t come to a head, and it seems the Chinese authorities have so far managed to contain it.

In the war in Ukraine, nothing of great note took place. That said, there was an event of importance at the time of the conjunction—thousands of miles away, in Asia Pacific. On August 1, Nancy Pelosi, the United States House Speaker, made a provocative visit to Taiwan, which was furiously protested by the Chinese authorities, who consider Taiwan to be a “rogue province” that should rightfully be governed from Beijing. This led to a military crisis in the Taiwan Strait, in which the Chinese held threatening drills and launched hacking attacks against Taiwanese targets. It dramatically increased tensions between the US and China.

Assessment: Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan had a lot of historic resonances with Cato the Elder’s visit to Carthage: in both cases, a senior politician crossed the ocean on imperial business, and their visit led to rumblings of war. That said, although I raised an instructive historical precedent, I can’t claim this as a predictive success, given that I made no mention of Taiwan or China in my article.

I’m frankly surprised that more didn’t happen around the time of this conjunction concerning the markets and Ukraine, which seemed to be especially tied into its symbolism. That said, I did say the following in my article:

One thing to note is that in the cases of both 1520 and 157 BCE, the events I’ve described were essentially preludes. They were episodes of deep symbolic resonance that didn’t, in themselves, involve many people. But what followed soon afterwards reverberated through the lives of millions. The North Node shows us where eclipses are taking place, which are said to foretell great change, sometimes years in the future.

With this in mind, I’d note that the fate of Ukraine is still being written. It’s possible that in years to come, astrologers might look at the August 1 conjunction as a signpost of the fate of the country, rather than a signifier of events at that particular time.

Mars retrograde in Gemini

On October 30, Mars stationed retrograde at 25° Gemini, a sign it will be spending around seven months in during this circuit of the zodiac. (Mars is preparing to station direct at the time of writing.) On September 1, I published an article on the Mountain Astrologer blog about the retrograde: Look on my Works, ye Mighty, and despair! The history of Mars retrogrades in Gemini. I published two short videos covering the same material:

On cyberattacks

The Prediction: “Hacking attacks and cyber conflict are a likely development with Mars moving through the airy, informational realm of Gemini.”

The Rationale: War and destruction in the cyber realm are a logical delineation of Mars in Gemini. And, as I explained in my article, there were notable historical precedents for it, including Anonymous’s attacks on Scientology in 2008 and the breaking of the TAT-8 transatlantic fibre optic cable in 1990.

What Happened: According to this list by Cyber Security Hub of the “biggest data breaches and leaks of 2022”, eight out ten of them either happened or were revealed after Mars entered Gemini.

Assessment: Generally this prediction played out very well, as I think the list above shows. If you scan the dates of the events listed in the article, it’s genuinely striking that they’re all stacked at the end of the year, when Mars was in Gemini.

If anything, though, my prediction was too specific. Mercury is associated not only with communication, but with connection more generally. As I explained in the Twitter thread below, during Mars’s stay in Gemini there have been many attacks against infrastructure and “connective tissue” in Europe, most notably Ukraine’s power transmission infrastructure and the Nord Stream gas pipelines:

Dan Waites @danwastro

Mercury is the god between, the psychopomp, the messenger. With Mars in Mercury's sign of Gemini, we're seeing major disruptions and attacks on Europe's connective infrastructure. Short thread 🧵

On the Ukraine war and crucial decisions

The Prediction: In the same article, I wrote: “In the coming months, look for war conferences, crucial decisions about strategy and even the expansion of conflict to new fronts.”

The Rationale: Mars reversing course seemed to speak of the reconsideration of war strategy. Mars stationed retrograde in Gemini III, a decan particularly associated with the taking of big decisions. The opening of a second front would make sense because of the duality associated with Gemini. During the Mars retrograde in Gemini of 1943, at the Tehran Conference during the Second World War, the Allies decided to open a second front against Nazi Germany.

What Happened: On November 9, with Mars freshly retrograde, the Russians took the major decision to retreat from Kherson, the first and only regional capital they captured since the beginning of the invasion. This was a major symbolic victory for the Ukrainians and a setback for the Russians.

There were also a large number of major decisions in other spheres around the time of the retrograde station:

• Elon Musk’s decision to take over Twitter, effective October 27

• Brazil’s election of Lula over Jair Bolsonaro on October 30

• Donald Trump’s decision to run for the US presidency, announced November 16

Russian President Vladimir Putin made a recent visit to Belarus for talks with his counterpart Alexander Lukashenko, raising fears he is trying to bring Belarus into the war and invade Ukraine from the North.

Assessment: I consider this prediction to have been correct. The retreat from Kherson was a landmark moment in the Russian invasion. It remains to be seen if we’ll see the expansion of the Ukraine war to another front or if Putin will succeed in bringing Belarus into the conflict. Mars is currently in the process of stationing direct and will remain in Gemini until March the 25th. I expect that was was planned during the retrograde period will be revealed once Mars begins to move forward again.

On imaging of the universe

The Prediction: I wrote: “This year has already been notable for incredible new images of the universe gathered by NASA’s James Webb Space Telescope. We could well expect to see more developments in the imaging of our universe at the end of this year.”

The Rationale: I noted that Mars retrogrades in Gemini seemed to coincide with big developments in the imaging of the universe, such as Galileo’s first glimpse of the planet Neptune in 1612 and the imaging of Mercury by NASA’s MESSENGER probe in 2008. It seemed reasonable to suppose that we’d see more important developments of this kind, especially with the James Webb telescope in operation.

What Happened: The James Webb did indeed take some pioneering images while Mars was in Gemini. Perhaps most notably of all, on September 1, NASA revealed the telescope’s first image of an exoplanet, i.e. a planet outside of our solar system. In December it took images of four ancient galaxies, at 13.4 billion years old the oldest ever seen by humanity.

Assessment: This prediction was correct, although what I wrote was rather vague. I also should have been more specific about the nature of the images that would be captured during the retrograde. It was inevitable that we would see more “developments in the imaging of our universe” with the James Webb in operation; I should have specified that new images would be of historic importance. Another critique I’d level at myself here is that it’s not clear if these images are particularly significant as compared to those taken at other times, so this prediction was not especially meaningful.

On the US and China going to war

On August 10, with tensions high in the Taiwan Strait, I published an article entitled “Will China and the US go to war?” In it I examined the history of US-China relations alongside the Saturn-Pluto cycle, which seems to time important developments in relations between the two countries amazingly well. I also published a video version of the essay:

The Prediction: “…if my analysis is right, we won’t see a confrontation between the two states for a few years. The current volatile situation on the Taiwan Strait will die down.”

The Rationale: My observation is that major developments in US-China relations are synchronised with the Saturn-Pluto cycle. I deduced that conflict would most likely come at hard aspects between those planets, such as the square in 2027-2028 or the opposition in 2035.

What Happened: The situation in the Taiwan Strait died down.

Assessment: This prediction was correct. That said, I think most observers would have made the same guess about the outcome of the situation in August, so I won’t pat myself on the back too hard. Still, the validity of my analysis, based on the Saturn-Pluto cycle, will become clear in the next few years. Some analysts are predicting war in 2023. If my approach is correct, that won’t happen, even if we do see more tension between the two countries.

Conclusion

Conducting this review was useful for taking stock of how I’m performing as a mundane astrologer. And I have to say, I’m pretty happy with how I did, even if there remains much room for improvement. I’m not a subject matter expert on Ukraine, Yemen, Ethiopia, cybersecurity, astronomy or US-China relations, but I was able to make accurate predictions on important trends and developments in all these areas using some superficial knowledge and the tools of astrology.

Whether my predictions were specific and confident enough to be useful to decision-makers is a different question. Perhaps not. But my concern in mundane astrology—at this stage of my career, anyway—isn’t really to aid decision-making. It’s to demonstrate the validity of the astrological perspective. Witnessing the astrological workings of the cosmos changed my life for the better. I will continue to evangelise for it in the hopes it will change the lives of others, too.

I wish you a wonderful 2023. And if you haven’t seen it, here’s my 2023 forecast video, made in collaboration with the astrologer Crypto Damus:

Want to know what 2023 has in store for you? I’m currently taking bookings for private consultations in January and February.